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Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?

Implied probability 2%
24-hour volume$66
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves1 Jan 2028
How the odds moved · Will P versus NP be the next Millennium Prize Problem solved by AI?
0%50%100%2%21 Sept, 11:49 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now2%
23 Sept, 13:56 UTC2%
23 Sept, 13:28 UTC2%
23 Sept, 12:54 UTC2%
23 Sept, 12:23 UTC2%
23 Sept, 11:51 UTC2%
23 Sept, 10:42 UTC2%
23 Sept, 10:24 UTC2%
23 Sept, 09:06 UTC2%
23 Sept, 08:53 UTC2%
23 Sept, 07:51 UTC2%
23 Sept, 07:27 UTC2%
23 Sept, 06:56 UTC2%
23 Sept, 06:28 UTC2%
23 Sept, 05:55 UTC2%
23 Sept, 05:13 UTC2%
23 Sept, 04:54 UTC2%
23 Sept, 04:28 UTC2%
23 Sept, 03:56 UTC2%
23 Sept, 03:22 UTC2%
23 Sept, 02:45 UTC2%
23 Sept, 02:26 UTC2%
23 Sept, 01:40 UTC2%
23 Sept, 01:21 UTC2%
23 Sept, 00:54 UTC2%
23 Sept, 00:28 UTC2%
22 Sept, 23:53 UTC2%
22 Sept, 23:28 UTC2%
22 Sept, 22:28 UTC2%
22 Sept, 21:53 UTC2%
22 Sept, 21:06 UTC3%
22 Sept, 20:50 UTC2%
22 Sept, 20:28 UTC3%
22 Sept, 19:56 UTC2%
22 Sept, 19:28 UTC2%
22 Sept, 18:58 UTC2%
22 Sept, 18:15 UTC3%
22 Sept, 16:09 UTC2%
22 Sept, 15:40 UTC2%
22 Sept, 15:23 UTC2%
22 Sept, 14:57 UTC2%
22 Sept, 14:19 UTC2%
22 Sept, 13:50 UTC2%
22 Sept, 12:11 UTC2%
22 Sept, 11:50 UTC2%
21 Sept, 11:49 UTC1%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if an eligible AI lab announces a full solution to P versus NP by December 31, 2027, at 11:59 PM ET. The No outcome applies if no such announcement is made by that deadline or if another qualifying problem is solved first. Readers often mistake progress reports for final solutions or assume the Navier-Stokes controversy affects this specific market.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 2%
  • No 98%

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