Will AI solve 4 more Millennium Prize Problems in 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 19:39 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 17:45 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 17:11 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 03:49 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 2% |
| 23 Sept, 00:00 UTC | 3% |
| 22 Sept, 23:41 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 22:34 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 19:28 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 16:02 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 15:40 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 15:11 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 14:28 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 13:23 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 12:20 UTC | 2% |
| 22 Sept, 11:59 UTC | 2% |
| 21 Sept, 11:49 UTC | 1% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if an eligible AI lab announces a solution to four or more distinct qualifying Millennium Prize Problems by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The outcome is No if fewer than four such announcements occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistakenly believe that progress toward a solution counts, but only formal announcements declaring the problem solved qualify.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 2%
- No 98%
Trade this market on Polymarket →