Will OpenAI announce another Millennium Prize solution by September 30, 2026?
The market favoured No at 98% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 0%
24-hour volume$14k
Total volume$223k
Liquidity$7k
Resolved1 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 02:00 UTC | 0% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 22:44 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 20:39 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 16:18 UTC | 0% |
| 30 Sept, 15:00 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 14:50 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 14:23 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 12:16 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 11:33 UTC | 1% |
| 30 Sept, 11:18 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 10:36 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 07:44 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 07:22 UTC | 2% |
| 30 Sept, 06:27 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 22:38 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 21:17 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 18:13 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 17:49 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 17:16 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 16:39 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 14:15 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 13:27 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 12:26 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 08:48 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 08:13 UTC | 2% |
| 29 Sept, 06:31 UTC | 3% |
| 29 Sept, 05:53 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 18:54 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 13:04 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 12:49 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 11:46 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 08:55 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 07:26 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 06:59 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 03:42 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 02:15 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 01:43 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 00:07 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 15:17 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 12:39 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 05:57 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 03:39 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 02:39 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 01:10 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 00:50 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 20:36 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 14:37 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 11:38 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 10:13 UTC | 2% |
| 26 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 06:00 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 05:00 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 04:52 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 04:01 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 03:08 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 02:09 UTC | 5% |
| 26 Sept, 01:37 UTC | 4% |
| 26 Sept, 00:08 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 21:55 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 21:27 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 20:18 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 19:53 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 19:25 UTC | 5% |
| 25 Sept, 16:04 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 15:50 UTC | 3% |
| 25 Sept, 12:57 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 12:25 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 11:56 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 10:29 UTC | 4% |
| 25 Sept, 08:06 UTC | 4% |
What counts
The market resolves to "Yes" if OpenAI or an official representative announces that it has solved one of the five specified Millennium Prize Problems by September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The announcement must explicitly state that the problem is solved and credit OpenAI as the solver; reports of progress, partial results, or solutions credited to outside researchers do not count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%
View this market on Polymarket →