Ashley Moody Wins Florida Senate Seat in Tight Race Against Angie Nixon Hot: Odds moved 46 points in 24 hours

The story so far

4 publishers have covered this in 4 articles since 4 Nov 2026. Bloomberg.com published first, on 4 November at 01:02 UTC; The Hill followed 2 min later. The most recent article, from CBS News Politics, appeared on 4 November at 01:44 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg.com (major outlet), The Hill (major outlet), The Guardian US (major outlet), CBS News Politics (major outlet).

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Ashley Moody, ≥16% — the market puts it at 4%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if Ashley Moody wins the 2026 Florida Senate special election by a margin of at least 16%. The outcome is No if her margin of victory falls below 16%. Readers often mistake the final certified results for the source of truth, but only the official margin of victory determines the resolution.
• Moody, 6+ pts — the market puts it at 1%, with $24k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Florida Senate election by a margin of at least six percentage points. It resolves to No if the winner’s margin is less than six points or if the opponent wins. Readers often mistake the projected win in the linked story for the actual election result, but only the official certified vote count determines the outcome.
• Republican party — the market puts it at 89%, with $80 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 7 Nov 2029. The market resolves to Yes if a Republican representative takes office as a U.S. Senator from Florida for the term starting in 2029. It resolves to No if that specific condition does not occur. Readers often mistake the linked story about an arrest for the resolution criteria, but only the official swearing-in of the senator matters.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.