Ashley Moody, ≥16%
Implied probability 4%−1
24-hour volume$3k
Total volume$6k
Liquidity$6k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 4 Nov, 01:49 UTC | 3% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 3% |
| 3 Nov, 00:46 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Ashley Moody wins the 2026 Florida Senate special election by a margin of at least 16%. The outcome is No if her margin of victory falls below 16%. Readers often mistake the final certified results for the source of truth, but only the official margin of victory determines the resolution.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%