Moody, 6+ pts
Implied probability 0%−48
24-hour volume$27k
Total volume$102k
Liquidity$102k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 5% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 18% |
| 3 Nov, 23:46 UTC | 43% |
| 3 Nov, 22:34 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 20:12 UTC | 49% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 17:51 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 16:40 UTC | 51% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 50% |
| 3 Nov, 14:18 UTC | 48% |
| 3 Nov, 13:04 UTC | 47% |
| 3 Nov, 11:52 UTC | 45% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Republican candidate wins the 2026 Florida Senate election by a margin of at least six percentage points. It resolves to No if the winner’s margin is less than six points or if the opponent wins. Readers often mistake the projected win in the linked story for the actual election result, but only the official certified vote count determines the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%