Meta’s Joel Kaplan to Depart as Chief Global Affairs Officer in 2027
Joel Kaplan will leave Meta after more than 15 years, with Dina Powell McCormick and C.J. Mahoney assuming his policy duties.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
First reported by Bloomberg Technology, 1 min ahead of the next publisher · who breaks stories first
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 17:10 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 16:13 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 15:51 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 15:23 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 14:10 UTC | 1% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 1% |
| 19 Oct, 02:49 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Oct, 01:54 UTC | 2% |
| 19 Oct, 00:11 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 23:22 UTC | 2% |
| 18 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 15:59 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 14:01 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 03:43 UTC | 3% |
| 18 Oct, 01:23 UTC | 3% |
| 17 Oct, 07:54 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 19:41 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 19:20 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 14:45 UTC | 3% |
| 16 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 22:42 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 20:45 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 18:20 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 17:53 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 16:56 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 16:07 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 13:45 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 12:23 UTC | 3% |
| 15 Oct, 11:13 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 10:52 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 10:05 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 09:16 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 4% |
| 15 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 19:50 UTC | 5% |
| 14 Oct, 14:31 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 4% |
| 14 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 22:52 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 22:11 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 21:44 UTC | 4% |
| 13 Oct, 18:57 UTC | 3% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? respond.
The story so far
5 publishers have covered this in 5 articles since 20 Oct 2026. Bloomberg Technology published first, on 20 October at 16:57 UTC; theinformation.com followed 2 min later. The most recent article, from The New York Times, appeared on 20 October at 18:11 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Bloomberg Technology (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), theinformation.com, Quartz, All Content from Business Insider.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? — the market puts it at 1%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The market resolves by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET to see which company owns the model with the highest rank. If ranks are tied, the system uses the precise arena score and then alphabetical order of company names as tiebreakers.
- Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026? — the market puts it at 4%, with $560 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Meta's public market capitalization falls between $2.00 trillion and $2.25 trillion at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of October 2026. It resolves to No if the value is outside that range or if Meta ceases to exist as an independent entity before that date.
- Before Nov 2026 — the market puts it at 10%, with $1 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 2 Nov 2026. The market resolves to Yes if any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their current role or announces they will leave before November 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such departure or announcement occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the linked headline about a 2027 departure as relevant, but only events happening before the November 2026 deadline count.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Bloomberg TechnologyMeta’s Chief Global Affairs Officer Joel Kaplan Departing1%
- theinformation.comMeta’s Global Affairs Chief Joel Kaplan to Leave in 20271%
- QuartzMeta's top policy chief is leaving after more than 15 years at the company1%
- All Content from Business InsiderMeta's policy chief Joel Kaplan is leaving after 15 years1%
- The New York TimesJoel Kaplan, Meta’s Global Policy Chief, to Leave After 15 Years1%
- Current odds1%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Joel Kaplan, Meta’s Global Policy Chief, to Leave After 15 Years The New York Times ·
- Meta’s Chief Global Affairs Officer Joel Kaplan Departing Bloomberg Technology ·
- Meta's policy chief Joel Kaplan is leaving after 15 years All Content from Business Insider
- Meta's top policy chief is leaving after more than 15 years at the company Quartz
- Meta’s Global Affairs Chief Joel Kaplan to Leave in 2027 theinformation.com
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026? 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026? 4% −8
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Nov 2026 10% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Meta Platforms Inc.
- Joel Kaplan
- Dina Powell McCormick
- C.J. Mahoney
- Donald Trump