Will Meta’s market capitalization be between $2.00T and $2.25T at the end of October 2026?
Why it moved: −8 points at 18:24 UTC, after The New York Times: Joel Kaplan, Meta’s Global Policy Chief, to Leave After 15 Years — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 19:14 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 18:45 UTC | 4% |
| 20 Oct, 18:24 UTC | 3% |
| 19 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 11% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Meta's public market capitalization falls between $2.00 trillion and $2.25 trillion at the close of regular trading on the final trading day of October 2026. It resolves to No if the value is outside that range or if Meta ceases to exist as an independent entity before that date.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 4%
- No 96%
Trade this market on Polymarket →