Before Nov 2026
Why it moved: −9 points at 18:01 UTC, after All Content from Business Insider: Meta's policy chief Joel Kaplan is leaving after 15 years — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 18:31 UTC | 10% |
| 20 Oct, 18:01 UTC | 11% |
| 19 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 20% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if any member of Trump's Cabinet leaves their current role or announces they will leave before November 1, 2026. It resolves to No if no such departure or announcement occurs by that date. Readers often mistake the linked headline about a 2027 departure as relevant, but only events happening before the November 2026 deadline count.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 10%
- No 90%