Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of December 2026?
Implied probability 1%
24-hour volume$638
Total volume$309k
Liquidity$71k
Resolves31 Dec 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 1% |
| 12 Nov, 09:10 UTC | 1% |
| 11 Nov, 14:13 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Nov, 14:33 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Nov, 14:04 UTC | 1% |
| 10 Nov, 12:13 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Nov, 20:54 UTC | 1% |
| 9 Nov, 19:00 UTC | 1% |
| 8 Nov, 19:44 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 13:49 UTC | 1% |
| 6 Nov, 13:27 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 22:32 UTC | 1% |
| 5 Nov, 18:06 UTC | 1% |
Does the market have this right?
Alert me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves by checking the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard on December 31, 2026, at 12:00 PM ET to see which company owns the model with the highest rank. If ranks are tied, the system uses the precise arena score and then alphabetical order of company names as tiebreakers.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%
Trade this market on Polymarket → Sponsored link: it carries our referral code. How the site is funded.