Lula, Flávio Bolsonaro Tied in Final Stretch of Brazilian Presidential Race

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 29 Sept 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 29 September at 14:34 UTC.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• At least 35% — the market puts it at 88%, closing 4 Oct 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro receives between 35% and 100% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. It resolves to No if he receives less than 35%. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of voting day rather than the date the results are officially certified.
• Flávio Bolsonaro — the market puts it at 61%, with $24k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 25 Oct 2027. The outcome is Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. The outcome is No if he does not win. Readers often mistake current polling data for the final result, but only the actual election winner matters.
• At least 50% — the market puts it at 7%, closing 4 Oct 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. It resolves to No if he receives less than 50%. Readers often mistake the headline’s mention of a ban on online gambling for the actual resolution criteria, which depends solely on his certified vote share.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.