At least 50%
Implied probability 7%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$3k
Liquidity$3k
Resolves4 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 22:28 UTC | 7% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva receives at least 50% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. It resolves to No if he receives less than 50%. Readers often mistake the headline’s mention of a ban on online gambling for the actual resolution criteria, which depends solely on his certified vote share.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 7%
- No 93%