At least 35%
Implied probability 88%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$13k
Liquidity$13k
Resolves4 Oct 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 88% |
| 28 Sept, 14:22 UTC | 88% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Flávio Bolsonaro receives between 35% and 100% of the popular vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election. It resolves to No if he receives less than 35%. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of voting day rather than the date the results are officially certified.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 88%
- No 12%