Jeremiah Smith Loses Heisman Favorite Status as Darian Mensah Rises Hot: Odds moved 19 points in 24 hours
Darian Mensah overtakes Jeremiah Smith for the Heisman Trophy lead following Ohio State's quarterback shuffle.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 25% |
| 1 Nov, 04:15 UTC | 25% |
| 1 Nov, 03:47 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 26% |
| 1 Nov, 02:50 UTC | 24% |
| 1 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 27% |
| 1 Nov, 01:59 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 01:24 UTC | 35% |
| 1 Nov, 00:56 UTC | 29% |
| 31 Oct, 23:53 UTC | 41% |
| 31 Oct, 20:43 UTC | 40% |
| 31 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 17:34 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 17:21 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 16:43 UTC | 39% |
| 31 Oct, 15:44 UTC | 40% |
| 31 Oct, 15:00 UTC | 40% |
| 31 Oct, 12:54 UTC | 41% |
| 31 Oct, 04:21 UTC | 44% |
| 30 Oct, 22:07 UTC | 43% |
| 30 Oct, 21:38 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Oct, 21:09 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Oct, 19:13 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Oct, 18:58 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Oct, 16:32 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Oct, 16:18 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Oct, 14:07 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Oct, 13:58 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Oct, 12:59 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Oct, 09:37 UTC | 41% |
| 30 Oct, 09:29 UTC | 42% |
| 30 Oct, 02:55 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 23:19 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 22:57 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 19:29 UTC | 42% |
| 29 Oct, 18:42 UTC | 42% |
| 29 Oct, 18:13 UTC | 43% |
| 29 Oct, 16:42 UTC | 41% |
| 29 Oct, 13:46 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Oct, 08:43 UTC | 38% |
| 29 Oct, 08:26 UTC | 38% |
| 29 Oct, 07:05 UTC | 38% |
| 29 Oct, 06:44 UTC | 38% |
| 29 Oct, 05:44 UTC | 39% |
| 29 Oct, 05:29 UTC | 39% |
| 29 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 40% |
| 29 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 23:40 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 22:46 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 21:49 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 17:09 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 14:42 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 11:37 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 41% |
| 28 Oct, 05:33 UTC | 42% |
| 28 Oct, 02:51 UTC | 40% |
| 28 Oct, 01:49 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Oct, 16:22 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Oct, 12:50 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Oct, 11:51 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Oct, 01:53 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Oct, 22:22 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 39% |
| 26 Oct, 15:39 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 44% |
| 26 Oct, 10:56 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 07:37 UTC | 43% |
| 26 Oct, 06:06 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 23:14 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 22:37 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 21:57 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 18:11 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 17:42 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 17:17 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 16:49 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Oct, 13:17 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 11:14 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 10:42 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 10:28 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 09:58 UTC | 47% |
| 25 Oct, 09:21 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 08:32 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Oct, 08:07 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Oct, 07:46 UTC | 45% |
| 25 Oct, 07:25 UTC | 46% |
| 25 Oct, 06:48 UTC | 44% |
| 25 Oct, 06:28 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 43% |
| 25 Oct, 05:03 UTC | 42% |
| 25 Oct, 04:43 UTC | 41% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? respond.
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 31 Oct 2026. CBS Sports Headlines published first, on 31 October at 15:51 UTC; feeds.bleacherreport.com followed 11h 42m later. The most recent article, from CBS Sports Headlines, appeared on 1 November at 03:59 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: CBS Sports Headlines, feeds.bleacherreport.com.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? — the market puts it at 25%, with $4k traded in the last 24 hours. The Yes outcome occurs if Jeremiah Smith is officially named the winner of the 2026 Heisman Trophy. The No outcome applies if any other player wins or if no winner is announced by December 26, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the deadline, but the market closes based on the specific cutoff time after the ceremony.
- Jeremiah Smith — the market puts it at 28%, with $256 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 22 May 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Jeremiah Smith is chosen as the first overall pick in the 2027 NFL Draft. It resolves to No if he is not selected first. Readers often mistake his college performance, such as tying an Ohio State record, for determining the outcome, but only the draft selection matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- CBS Sports HeadlinesCan Jeremiah Smith's Heisman Trophy candidacy survive Ohio State's sudden QB shuffle?40%
- feeds.bleacherreport.comLatest Heisman Trophy 2026 Odds as Darian Mensah Rises, Jeremiah Smith Falls26%▼13 points since the previous source
- CBS Sports HeadlinesJeremiah Smith's Heisman hopes take hit after Ohio State's offense sputtered with new QB in USC loss26%▼1 points since the previous source
- Current odds25%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Jeremiah Smith's Heisman hopes take hit after Ohio State's offense sputtered with new QB in USC loss CBS Sports Headlines
- Latest Heisman Trophy 2026 Odds as Darian Mensah Rises, Jeremiah Smith Falls feeds.bleacherreport.com
- Can Jeremiah Smith's Heisman Trophy candidacy survive Ohio State's sudden QB shuffle? CBS Sports Headlines
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Polymarket Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy? 25% −18
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Jeremiah Smith 28% −10
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
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In this story
- Darian Mensah
- Jeremiah Smith
- Ohio State