Mbappe Targets Ballon d'Or as Real Madrid Boycotts Ceremony Hot: $229k traded on its market in 24 hours
Kylian Mbappe aims to win the award despite his club's absence from the event.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 06:15 UTC | 7% |
| 22 Oct, 02:05 UTC | 8% |
| 20 Oct, 05:47 UTC | 7% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 22 Oct 2026. SI Feed published first, on 22 October at 21:30 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 40h 52m later. The most recent article, from Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera, appeared on 24 October at 14:21 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), SI Feed.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Kylian Mbappe leaves before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 7%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Kylian Mbappe transfers out of Real Madrid before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he remains at the club past that date. Readers often mistake his injury status or national team availability for a transfer.
- Will Lionel Messi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? — the market puts it at 1%, with $3k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves based on who takes second place in the men's 2026 Ballon d'Or ranking. If players tie for second, France Football or UEFA breaks the tie alphabetically by name. Readers often mistake the October 26 ceremony date as the final deadline, but the official ranking must be published by December 31, 2026.
- Lionel Messi — the market puts it at 1%, with $229k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if Lionel Messi wins the Ballon d'Or in 2026. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about his departure from Argentina as the deciding factor, but only the official award result matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Kylian Mbappe leaves before Jan 1, 2027 7%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Lionel Messi finish 2nd in the 2026 Ballon d'Or? 1%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Lionel Messi 1% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Email me when the odds move
In this story
- Kylian Mbappe
- Real Madrid
- Ballon d’Or