Will Jeremiah Smith win the 2026 Heisman Trophy?
Implied probability 56%−1
24-hour volume$153k
Total volume$213k
Liquidity$5k
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 56% |
| 12 Oct, 17:30 UTC | 56% |
| 12 Oct, 16:25 UTC | 54% |
| 12 Oct, 15:07 UTC | 55% |
| 12 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 54% |
| 12 Oct, 12:56 UTC | 55% |
| 12 Oct, 08:27 UTC | 55% |
| 12 Oct, 05:56 UTC | 58% |
| 12 Oct, 05:18 UTC | 62% |
| 12 Oct, 02:22 UTC | 58% |
| 11 Oct, 21:43 UTC | 57% |
| 11 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 56% |
| 11 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 58% |
| 11 Oct, 19:33 UTC | 61% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 63% |
| 11 Oct, 06:37 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 06:07 UTC | 64% |
| 11 Oct, 05:49 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 05:06 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 04:41 UTC | 66% |
| 11 Oct, 04:28 UTC | 65% |
| 11 Oct, 03:51 UTC | 66% |
| 11 Oct, 01:59 UTC | 61% |
| 11 Oct, 01:16 UTC | 62% |
| 11 Oct, 00:57 UTC | 62% |
| 11 Oct, 00:20 UTC | 59% |
| 10 Oct, 23:55 UTC | 60% |
| 10 Oct, 23:24 UTC | 58% |
| 10 Oct, 22:45 UTC | 57% |
| 10 Oct, 22:26 UTC | 59% |
| 10 Oct, 21:47 UTC | 55% |
| 10 Oct, 21:25 UTC | 56% |
| 10 Oct, 20:53 UTC | 53% |
| 10 Oct, 20:28 UTC | 54% |
| 10 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 54% |
| 9 Oct, 19:56 UTC | 47% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Jeremiah Smith is officially named the winner of the 2026 Heisman Trophy. The No outcome applies if any other player wins or if no winner is announced by December 26, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Readers often mistake the announcement date for the deadline, but the market closes based on the specific cutoff time after the ceremony.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 56%
- No 44%
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