Iowa Senate Candidate Josh Turek Faces Backlash Over Transgender Sports Ad

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 1 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 1 November at 14:55 UTC.

2 prediction markets price this story:

• Josh Turek, 0-2% — the market puts it at 20%, with $941 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The outcome is Yes if Josh Turek’s margin of victory in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa falls between 0% and 2%. The outcome is No if his margin of victory is outside that range. Readers often mistake the deadline for the election date rather than the final certification of results.
• Turek, 4+ pts — the market puts it at 20%, with $185 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 3 Nov 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Iowa Senate election by a margin of at least 4 percentage points. It resolves to No if that specific victory margin does not occur. Readers often mistake the linked news story about campaign ads for the actual election result, but only the final certified vote count determines the outcome.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.