Turek, 4+ pts
Implied probability 20%−1
24-hour volume$185
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$18k
Resolves3 Nov 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 1 Nov, 15:08 UTC | 20% |
| 31 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 21% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the Democratic Party wins the 2026 Iowa Senate election by a margin of at least 4 percentage points. It resolves to No if that specific victory margin does not occur. Readers often mistake the linked news story about campaign ads for the actual election result, but only the final certified vote count determines the outcome.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%