Critics Argue Trump Abused Pardon Power in Second Term
An opinion piece claims the president's pardons of January 6 defendants and others constitute a grave abuse of executive authority.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 57% |
| 31 Oct, 23:46 UTC | 64% |
| 31 Oct, 22:21 UTC | 57% |
| 31 Oct, 21:17 UTC | 56% |
| 31 Oct, 17:49 UTC | 57% |
| 31 Oct, 04:35 UTC | 56% |
| 29 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 57% |
| 28 Oct, 20:37 UTC | 55% |
| 28 Oct, 05:51 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Oct, 08:04 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Oct, 05:54 UTC | 56% |
| 26 Oct, 18:04 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Oct, 12:47 UTC | 58% |
| 26 Oct, 09:46 UTC | 57% |
| 26 Oct, 01:02 UTC | 56% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 1 Nov 2026. The Guardian US published first, on 1 November at 14:00 UTC.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Donald Trump — the market puts it at 57%, with $171 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 21 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Donald Trump receives a presidential pardon, commutation, or reprieve during his second term and before January 21, 2029. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about pardoning diesel mechanics as the triggering event, but only a formal presidential action counts.
- At least 2 — the market puts it at 27%, closing 21 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if the U.S. House of Representatives impeaches Donald Trump two or more times during his second presidential term. It resolves to No if he faces fewer than two impeachments in that period. Readers often mistake the source of truth, thinking any political criticism or Senate action counts instead of only formal House impeachments.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Donald Trump 57% +1
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- Kalshi At least 2 27%
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