Chancellor Merz Nominates Ilse Aigner as Germany's First Female President
The conservative bloc backs the Bavarian politician to succeed Frank-Walter Steinmeier in March.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 96% |
| 10 Nov, 18:04 UTC | 96% |
| 9 Nov, 22:50 UTC | 93% |
| 7 Nov, 23:17 UTC | 87% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Ilse Aigner respond.
The story so far
6 publishers have covered this in 12 articles since 8 Nov 2026. Deutsche Welle published first, on 8 November at 09:02 UTC; Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera followed 14h 38m later. The most recent article, from Deutsche Welle, appeared on 10 November at 08:36 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera (major outlet), The New York Times (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), ABC News (major outlet), Deutsche Welle, Times of India.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Ilse Aigner — the market puts it at 96%, closing 30 Jan 2028. The outcome is Yes if Ilse Aigner wins the 2027 German presidential election. The outcome is No if she does not win that specific election. Readers often mistake the nomination for a win, but only the final election result counts.
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 8%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz officially announces his intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or actually leaves that position before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a rail revamp plan for relevant information, but only Merz's actions regarding his chancellorship matter.
- Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 3%, with $25k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz stops being Chancellor at any point before December 31, 2026, including via resignation or removal. An early announcement of his departure triggers an immediate Yes resolution, even if the change takes effect later. Readers often mistake the deadline for the date the resignation becomes effective rather than the date it is announced.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Ilse Aigner at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- Deutsche WelleGermany news: Friedrich Merz set to confirm presidential nominee87%
- Deutsche WelleGermany news: Merz to nominate Aigner for president87%
- Deutsche WelleGermany: Chancellor Merz to nominate Aigner for president87%
- Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraChancellor Merz to nominate Aigner as Germany’s first woman president87%
- Times of IndiaChancellor Merz backs Ilse Aigner as Germany's first female President87%
- The New York TimesGermans Miss Merkel, Their Old Chancellor, Though They Dislike Her Policies87%
- Deutsche WelleWho is Ilse Aigner, leading candidate for Germany's next president?87%
- Deutsche WelleGermany: CDU names Ilse Aigner as candidate for president87%
- News FeedMerz nominates Germany’s first female president87%
- ABC NewsGermany set to get 1st female president as governing parties unite around ex-minister87%
- Deutsche WelleGermany news: President candidate Aigner to meet parties in Bundestag93%▲6 points since the previous source
- Deutsche WelleGermany news: Ilse Aigner meets parties at Bundestag93%
- Current odds96%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Germany set to get 1st female president as governing parties unite around ex-minister ABC News ·
- Merz nominates Germany’s first female president News Feed ·
- Germans Miss Merkel, Their Old Chancellor, Though They Dislike Her Policies The New York Times ·
- Chancellor Merz to nominate Aigner as Germany’s first woman president Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera ·
- Germany news: President candidate Aigner to meet parties in Bundestag Deutsche Welle
- Germany news: Ilse Aigner meets parties at Bundestag Deutsche Welle
Show 6 more sources
- Germany: CDU names Ilse Aigner as candidate for president Deutsche Welle
- Who is Ilse Aigner, leading candidate for Germany's next president? Deutsche Welle
- Chancellor Merz backs Ilse Aigner as Germany's first female President Times of India
- Germany news: Merz to nominate Aigner for president Deutsche Welle
- Germany: Chancellor Merz to nominate Aigner for president Deutsche Welle
- Germany news: Friedrich Merz set to confirm presidential nominee Deutsche Welle
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Kalshi Ilse Aigner · German presidential election winner? 96%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 8%
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Wrong market?
- Polymarket Friedrich Merz out as Chancellor of Germany before December 31, 2026? 3%
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Wrong market?
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In this story
- Ilse Aigner
- Friedrich Merz
- Germany
- CDU
- CSU