Before Jan 1, 2027
Implied probability 12%+2
24-hour volume$14
Total volume$5k
Liquidity$5k
Resolves1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 12% |
| 8 Oct, 01:22 UTC | 12% |
| 7 Oct, 01:01 UTC | 10% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Friedrich Merz officially announces his intention to leave as Chancellor of Germany or actually leaves that position before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about a rail revamp plan for relevant information, but only Merz's actions regarding his chancellorship matter.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 12%
- No 88%