Trump's $1.5 Trillion Defense Budget Blocked by Democrats
Congressional Republicans face obstacles to approving the president's defense spending request following midterm election losses.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked article; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 7 Nov, 14:06 UTC | 5% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 8 Nov 2026. Bloomberg Markets published first, on 8 November at 14:40 UTC.
One prediction market prices this story:
- At least 1 trillion — the market puts it at 5%, closing 31 Mar 2029. The market resolves to Yes if government spending drops by at least $1 trillion compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 in any single quarter through the end of 2028. It resolves to No if that specific drop never occurs within the defined timeframe. Readers often mistake this for a total budget cut rather than a quarterly comparison against a specific past baseline.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
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- Kalshi At least 1 trillion 5%
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