At least 1 trillion
Implied probability 5%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$17k
Resolves31 Mar 2029
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 5% |
| 7 Nov, 14:06 UTC | 5% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if government spending drops by at least $1 trillion compared to the fourth quarter of 2024 in any single quarter through the end of 2028. It resolves to No if that specific drop never occurs within the defined timeframe. Readers often mistake this for a total budget cut rather than a quarterly comparison against a specific past baseline.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 5%
- No 95%