Trump Urges Venezuela Elections as US Firms Eye Oil Deals

The story so far

12 publishers have covered this in 32 articles since 6 Sept 2026. National Review published first, on 6 September at 10:30 UTC; South China Morning Post followed 59h 00m later. The most recent article, from Bloomberg Markets, appeared on 23 September at 20:39 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), The Guardian Business (major outlet), Bloomberg Markets (major outlet), News Feed (major outlet), Washington Post (major outlet), Axios (major outlet), National Review, South China Morning Post, Mother Jones, Fox News Politics, www.theregister.com, Times of India.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Shell — the market puts it at 68%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Shell or its controlled affiliate signs a binding agreement granting an enforceable upstream crude-oil economic participation right in Venezuela before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the signing date for the resolution deadline, but the agreement must be executed prior to that specific date.
• Venezuela — the market puts it at 2%, with $179 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The outcome is Yes if any part of Venezuela becomes the 51st U.S. state before January 20, 2029. Otherwise, the outcome is No. Readers often mistake the linked news story about oil deals for a relevant event, but only statehood matters.
• China — the market puts it at 7%, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a free trade deal with China becomes law through Senate ratification and Presidential approval, or via a Congressional-Executive Agreement signed by the President before January 1, 2027. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Readers often mistake the announcement of talks for the actual passage of legislation.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.