Tesla Roadster 2 Set to Debut Amid Skeptical EV Market
The overdue vehicle debuts Thursday in a market that has grown skeptical of electric hypercars.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 08:03 UTC | 6% |
| 14 Oct, 07:16 UTC | 10% |
| 13 Oct, 20:35 UTC | 8% |
| 13 Oct, 18:50 UTC | 6% |
| 13 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 9% |
| 13 Oct, 05:48 UTC | 7% |
| 13 Oct, 03:01 UTC | 3% |
| 13 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 5% |
| 13 Oct, 00:28 UTC | 9% |
| 12 Oct, 20:22 UTC | 11% |
| 12 Oct, 12:18 UTC | 10% |
| 11 Oct, 18:07 UTC | 12% |
| 9 Oct, 23:38 UTC | 5% |
| 9 Oct, 09:55 UTC | 8% |
| 9 Oct, 05:13 UTC | 5% |
| 8 Oct, 18:27 UTC | 6% |
| 8 Oct, 16:53 UTC | 11% |
| 8 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 13% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 14 Oct 2026. WIRED published first, on 14 October at 09:15 UTC; The Verge followed 1h 45m later. The most recent article, from The Verge, appeared on 14 October at 11:00 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: WIRED (major outlet), The Verge (major outlet).
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 6%, with $858 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if the Tesla Roadster begins delivery before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if that event does not happen by that date. Readers often mistake the linked story about the Tesla Semi truck for the relevant vehicle, but only the Roadster counts.
- Roadster — the market puts it at 94%, closing 31 Mar 2027. The market resolves to Yes if a Tesla representative mentions the Roadster during the upcoming earnings call or its question-and-answer session. It resolves to No if that specific mention does not occur within that designated timeframe. Readers often mistake the deadline, assuming any future announcement counts rather than only what happens during this single event.
- Before 2027 — the market puts it at 6%, with $984 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 31 Dec 2026. The outcome is Yes if a Tesla Optimus or similar humanoid robot sells to the general public before December 31, 2026. The outcome is No if this sale does not happen by that date. Readers often mistake production milestones for actual sales to the public.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2027 6% −1
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Roadster 94%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Kalshi Before 2027 6% +2
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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