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Before 2027

Implied probability 6%+4
24-hour volume$161
Total volume$89k
Liquidity$89k
Resolves1 Jan 2027

Why it moved: +3 points at 17:09 UTC, after The Hollywood Reporter: New ‘Musk’ Trailer Highlights the Mogul’s “Shocking” Conflicts of Interest — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Before 2027
0%50%100%6%23 Sept, 16:04 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now6%
24 Sept, 17:48 UTC7%
24 Sept, 17:09 UTC5%
23 Sept, 16:04 UTC2%

Your call. How does this end?

Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls

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What counts

The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk ceases to be Tesla's CEO before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he remains in that role through the end of 2026. Readers often mistake the release date of the linked documentary for the resolution deadline.

Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 6%
  • No 94%

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