Taylor Swift to Receive Inaugural MTV VMA Artist Director Honors
The singer will be the first recipient of the new award at the 2026 ceremony, which honors artists who direct their own music videos.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 5 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 28 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 100% |
| 28 Sept, 01:36 UTC | 100% |
| 28 Sept, 01:03 UTC | 100% |
| 28 Sept, 00:54 UTC | 73% |
| 28 Sept, 00:22 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Sept, 23:59 UTC | 39% |
| 27 Sept, 23:16 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 22:24 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 21:50 UTC | 53% |
| 27 Sept, 21:15 UTC | 52% |
| 27 Sept, 20:50 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Sept, 20:29 UTC | 57% |
| 27 Sept, 19:59 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 19:27 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 18:58 UTC | 61% |
| 27 Sept, 18:27 UTC | 61% |
| 27 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 61% |
| 27 Sept, 17:13 UTC | 63% |
| 27 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 56% |
| 27 Sept, 16:23 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 50% |
| 27 Sept, 15:24 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 14:45 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Sept, 14:24 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Sept, 13:55 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 13:29 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 12:21 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 11:54 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Sept, 10:30 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Sept, 09:50 UTC | 48% |
| 27 Sept, 09:02 UTC | 49% |
| 27 Sept, 08:42 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Sept, 08:29 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 07:55 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 07:21 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 06:41 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 06:17 UTC | 43% |
| 27 Sept, 05:30 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Sept, 04:59 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 04:11 UTC | 42% |
| 27 Sept, 03:53 UTC | 40% |
| 27 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 44% |
| 27 Sept, 02:58 UTC | 47% |
| 27 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Sept, 01:55 UTC | 45% |
| 27 Sept, 01:24 UTC | 41% |
| 27 Sept, 00:34 UTC | 42% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 38% |
| 26 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Sept, 17:32 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 17:14 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 15:40 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 15:15 UTC | 32% |
| 26 Sept, 13:50 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 12:58 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 31% |
| 26 Sept, 11:29 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 10:50 UTC | 30% |
| 26 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 35% |
| 26 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 08:38 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 08:02 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 06:25 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 04:36 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 04:01 UTC | 29% |
| 26 Sept, 00:17 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Sept, 23:01 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Sept, 22:47 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 17:06 UTC | 23% |
| 25 Sept, 14:16 UTC | 24% |
| 25 Sept, 13:54 UTC | 19% |
| 25 Sept, 12:18 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Sept, 11:48 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Sept, 10:12 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Sept, 09:50 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Sept, 09:24 UTC | 21% |
| 25 Sept, 08:59 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Sept, 08:20 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Sept, 07:14 UTC | 18% |
| 25 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 05:56 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 05:24 UTC | 20% |
| 25 Sept, 04:56 UTC | 22% |
| 25 Sept, 04:28 UTC | 15% |
| 25 Sept, 03:57 UTC | 14% |
| 25 Sept, 02:53 UTC | 8% |
| 24 Sept, 20:52 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 11% |
| 24 Sept, 16:26 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 15:59 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 15:25 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 14:36 UTC | 7% |
| 24 Sept, 13:09 UTC | 13% |
| 24 Sept, 12:55 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 11:26 UTC | 12% |
| 24 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 10:28 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 09:56 UTC | 10% |
| 24 Sept, 08:36 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 08:16 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 07:54 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 05:34 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 03:46 UTC | 16% |
| 24 Sept, 03:26 UTC | 17% |
| 24 Sept, 02:44 UTC | 17% |
| 23 Sept, 23:27 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 22:27 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 21:36 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 20:00 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 19:54 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 18:39 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 17:59 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 16:49 UTC | 12% |
| 23 Sept, 16:11 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 15:37 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 14:54 UTC | 11% |
| 23 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 10% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 9% |
| 23 Sept, 12:31 UTC | 16% |
| 23 Sept, 12:14 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Sept, 22:41 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Sept, 22:28 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Sept, 21:19 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Sept, 20:57 UTC | 16% |
| 22 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 14% |
| 21 Sept, 18:34 UTC | 26% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? respond.
The story so far
8 publishers have covered this in 8 articles since 21 Sept 2026. The Hollywood Reporter published first, on 21 September at 16:00 UTC; Variety followed 0 min later. The most recent article, from Consequence, appeared on 22 September at 18:07 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The Hollywood Reporter (major outlet), Variety (major outlet), Stereogum, Rolling Stone, Billboard, Deadline, Times of India, Consequence.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? — resolved “Yes” on 28 Sept 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Madonna is officially named the winner of the Artist of the Year category at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. The No outcome applies if she does not win, including cases where she is not nominated or another artist wins. Readers often mistake the nomination deadline for the resolution date; the market resolves only after the winner is declared by December 31, 2026.
- Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? — resolved “Yes” on 28 Sept 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” wins Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. The No outcome applies if any other video wins, or if the song is not officially nominated when nominees are announced. Readers often mistake the award ceremony date for the deadline; the actual deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
- Taylor Swift pregnant by September 30? — resolved “No” on 1 Oct 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Taylor Swift makes a credible pregnancy announcement between now and September 30, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Credible announcements come from her or her representatives, though strong media consensus may count. Jokes or unclear hints do not qualify as valid announcements.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- The Hollywood ReporterTaylor Swift to Receive Inaugural MTV VMA Artist Director Honors—
- VarietyTaylor Swift to Be Honored at 2026 MTV VMAs With Inaugural Artist-Director Award—
- StereogumVMAs Introduce New Award For Taylor Swift—
- Rolling StoneTaylor Swift to Receive Inaugural Artist Director Honors at 2026 MTV VMAs—
- BillboardTaylor Swift to Be First Recipient of Artist Director Honors at 2026 MTV VMAs—
- DeadlineTaylor Swift Set For Inaugural MTV VMA Artist Director Honors26%
- Times of IndiaTaylor Swift wins MTV's new artist director award26%
- ConsequenceTaylor Swift Announces “Patient Zero,” New Single Due Friday26%
- Market resolved: Yes
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
- Taylor Swift to Be Honored at 2026 MTV VMAs With Inaugural Artist-Director Award Variety ·
- Taylor Swift to Receive Inaugural MTV VMA Artist Director Honors The Hollywood Reporter ·
- Taylor Swift Announces “Patient Zero,” New Single Due Friday Consequence
- Taylor Swift wins MTV's new artist director award Times of India
- Taylor Swift Set For Inaugural MTV VMA Artist Director Honors Deadline
- Taylor Swift to Be First Recipient of Artist Director Honors at 2026 MTV VMAs Billboard
- Taylor Swift to Receive Inaugural Artist Director Honors at 2026 MTV VMAs Rolling Stone
- VMAs Introduce New Award For Taylor Swift Stereogum
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? Yes 39d ago
The market favoured No at 55% a day out, but Yes won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards? Yes 39d ago
The market favoured Yes at 63% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Taylor Swift pregnant by September 30? No 36d ago
The market favoured No at 100% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
In this story
- Taylor Swift
- MTV
- MTV Video Music Awards