Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
Implied probability 65%+12
24-hour volume$4k
Total volume$17k
Liquidity$1k
Resolves28 Sept 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 65% |
| 23 Sept, 21:23 UTC | 65% |
| 23 Sept, 20:55 UTC | 65% |
| 23 Sept, 20:20 UTC | 64% |
| 23 Sept, 18:25 UTC | 56% |
| 23 Sept, 09:57 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Sept, 09:28 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Sept, 07:27 UTC | 55% |
| 23 Sept, 06:07 UTC | 54% |
| 23 Sept, 00:28 UTC | 54% |
| 22 Sept, 21:33 UTC | 53% |
| 22 Sept, 16:46 UTC | 52% |
| 22 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 53% |
| 22 Sept, 12:37 UTC | 52% |
| 22 Sept, 11:50 UTC | 52% |
| 21 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 52% |
| 21 Sept, 20:56 UTC | 52% |
| 21 Sept, 20:04 UTC | 52% |
| 21 Sept, 19:55 UTC | 51% |
| 21 Sept, 19:19 UTC | 54% |
| 21 Sept, 16:02 UTC | 52% |
| 20 Sept, 16:02 UTC | 59% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” wins Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. The No outcome applies if any other video wins, or if the song is not officially nominated when nominees are announced. Readers often mistake the award ceremony date for the deadline; the actual deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 65%
- No 36%
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