Will “The Fate of Ophelia” by Taylor Swift win Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
Why it moved: −7 points at 16:02 UTC, after Variety: Taylor Swift to Be Honored at 2026 MTV VMAs With Inaugural Artist-Director Award — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 52% |
| 21 Sept, 16:02 UTC | 52% |
| 20 Sept, 16:02 UTC | 59% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if Taylor Swift’s “The Fate of Ophelia” wins Video of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. The No outcome applies if any other video wins, or if the song is not officially nominated when nominees are announced. Readers often mistake the award ceremony date for the deadline; the actual deadline is December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 52%
- No 49%
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