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Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?

Implied probability 100%+53
24-hour volume$6k
Total volume$18k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves28 Sept 2026

Why it moved: +27 points at 01:03 UTC, after The Hollywood Reporter: Dolly Parton Honored by Kacey Musgraves During Tribute Performance at 2026 MTV VMAs — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.

How the odds moved · Will Madonna win Artist of the Year at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards?
0%50%100%100%21 Sept, 18:34 UTCnow
Price data
TimeChance of yes
now100%
28 Sept, 02:08 UTC100%
28 Sept, 01:36 UTC100%
28 Sept, 01:03 UTC100%
28 Sept, 00:54 UTC73%
28 Sept, 00:22 UTC47%
27 Sept, 23:59 UTC39%
27 Sept, 23:16 UTC48%
27 Sept, 22:47 UTC49%
27 Sept, 22:24 UTC52%
27 Sept, 21:50 UTC53%
27 Sept, 21:15 UTC52%
27 Sept, 20:50 UTC48%
27 Sept, 20:29 UTC57%
27 Sept, 19:59 UTC56%
27 Sept, 19:27 UTC56%
27 Sept, 18:58 UTC61%
27 Sept, 18:27 UTC61%
27 Sept, 17:59 UTC61%
27 Sept, 17:13 UTC63%
27 Sept, 16:59 UTC56%
27 Sept, 16:23 UTC49%
27 Sept, 15:59 UTC50%
27 Sept, 15:24 UTC49%
27 Sept, 14:45 UTC47%
27 Sept, 14:24 UTC41%
27 Sept, 13:55 UTC43%
27 Sept, 13:29 UTC45%
27 Sept, 12:55 UTC44%
27 Sept, 12:21 UTC42%
27 Sept, 11:54 UTC40%
27 Sept, 10:30 UTC48%
27 Sept, 09:50 UTC48%
27 Sept, 09:02 UTC49%
27 Sept, 08:42 UTC45%
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27 Sept, 00:34 UTC42%
26 Sept, 23:00 UTC38%
26 Sept, 22:14 UTC37%
26 Sept, 21:58 UTC36%
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26 Sept, 17:32 UTC31%
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26 Sept, 15:40 UTC30%
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26 Sept, 13:50 UTC31%
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26 Sept, 00:17 UTC23%
25 Sept, 23:01 UTC23%
25 Sept, 22:47 UTC22%
25 Sept, 17:06 UTC23%
25 Sept, 14:16 UTC24%
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25 Sept, 12:18 UTC21%
25 Sept, 11:48 UTC21%
25 Sept, 10:12 UTC21%
25 Sept, 09:50 UTC20%
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25 Sept, 07:14 UTC18%
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25 Sept, 05:56 UTC22%
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25 Sept, 04:28 UTC15%
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24 Sept, 20:52 UTC10%
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24 Sept, 10:55 UTC10%
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24 Sept, 09:56 UTC10%
24 Sept, 08:36 UTC16%
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24 Sept, 07:54 UTC16%
24 Sept, 05:34 UTC17%
24 Sept, 03:46 UTC16%
24 Sept, 03:26 UTC17%
24 Sept, 02:44 UTC17%
23 Sept, 23:27 UTC11%
23 Sept, 22:27 UTC10%
23 Sept, 21:36 UTC11%
23 Sept, 20:55 UTC11%
23 Sept, 20:00 UTC12%
23 Sept, 19:54 UTC11%
23 Sept, 18:39 UTC12%
23 Sept, 18:25 UTC12%
23 Sept, 17:59 UTC12%
23 Sept, 16:49 UTC12%
23 Sept, 16:11 UTC11%
23 Sept, 15:37 UTC10%
23 Sept, 14:54 UTC11%
23 Sept, 13:38 UTC10%
23 Sept, 13:28 UTC9%
23 Sept, 12:31 UTC16%
23 Sept, 12:14 UTC15%
22 Sept, 22:41 UTC16%
22 Sept, 22:28 UTC16%
22 Sept, 21:19 UTC16%
22 Sept, 20:57 UTC16%
22 Sept, 18:34 UTC14%
21 Sept, 18:34 UTC26%

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What counts

The Yes outcome occurs if Madonna is officially named the winner of the Artist of the Year category at the 2026 MTV Video Music Awards. The No outcome applies if she does not win, including cases where she is not nominated or another artist wins. Readers often mistake the nomination deadline for the resolution date; the market resolves only after the winner is declared by December 31, 2026.

Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.

Outcomes

  • Yes 100%
  • No 0%

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