Talarico Holds Slight Lead in Texas Senate Race Poll
A new NBC 5 Dallas/Telemundo poll shows Democratic candidate James Talarico leading Republican Ken Paxton by three points among registered voters.
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The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:55 UTC | 0% |
| 4 Nov, 03:26 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:41 UTC | 1% |
| 4 Nov, 02:26 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 01:57 UTC | 2% |
| 4 Nov, 01:27 UTC | 6% |
| 4 Nov, 00:58 UTC | 19% |
| 4 Nov, 00:29 UTC | 22% |
| 3 Nov, 23:53 UTC | 19% |
| 3 Nov, 23:24 UTC | 23% |
| 3 Nov, 22:49 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 24% |
| 3 Nov, 20:49 UTC | 25% |
| 3 Nov, 18:59 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 17:33 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 15:36 UTC | 28% |
| 3 Nov, 15:29 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 14:46 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 02:30 UTC | 26% |
| 3 Nov, 01:46 UTC | 27% |
| 3 Nov, 00:48 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 18:27 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Nov, 17:26 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 16:19 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Nov, 15:04 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 12:56 UTC | 24% |
| 2 Nov, 11:36 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Nov, 10:21 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 08:57 UTC | 25% |
| 2 Nov, 08:29 UTC | 26% |
| 2 Nov, 05:46 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 05:24 UTC | 27% |
| 2 Nov, 03:35 UTC | 28% |
| 2 Nov, 01:17 UTC | 29% |
| 2 Nov, 00:04 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 23:22 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Nov, 19:23 UTC | 31% |
| 1 Nov, 17:35 UTC | 30% |
| 1 Nov, 14:30 UTC | 31% |
| 31 Oct, 19:39 UTC | 30% |
| 31 Oct, 13:16 UTC | 28% |
| 31 Oct, 02:54 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 14:58 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Oct, 13:42 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 13:20 UTC | 29% |
| 30 Oct, 12:38 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 12:24 UTC | 30% |
| 30 Oct, 07:48 UTC | 28% |
| 30 Oct, 03:47 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 21:07 UTC | 31% |
| 29 Oct, 19:08 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 18:06 UTC | 32% |
| 29 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 17:19 UTC | 30% |
| 29 Oct, 13:29 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Oct, 17:47 UTC | 32% |
| 28 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 33% |
| 28 Oct, 15:03 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Oct, 22:51 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Oct, 20:03 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Oct, 19:26 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Oct, 18:49 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Oct, 18:05 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 32% |
| 27 Oct, 14:14 UTC | 33% |
| 27 Oct, 02:42 UTC | 34% |
| 27 Oct, 02:23 UTC | 35% |
| 26 Oct, 22:56 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 37% |
| 26 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Oct, 04:22 UTC | 36% |
| 26 Oct, 00:54 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Oct, 23:35 UTC | 38% |
| 25 Oct, 23:25 UTC | 38% |
| 25 Oct, 22:13 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Oct, 21:21 UTC | 36% |
| 25 Oct, 05:10 UTC | 37% |
| 25 Oct, 02:07 UTC | 38% |
| 24 Oct, 21:58 UTC | 36% |
| 24 Oct, 15:34 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Oct, 14:47 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Oct, 08:57 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Oct, 08:29 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Oct, 04:03 UTC | 37% |
| 24 Oct, 01:25 UTC | 36% |
| 24 Oct, 00:27 UTC | 36% |
| 23 Oct, 23:57 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 22:49 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 21:34 UTC | 35% |
| 23 Oct, 21:27 UTC | 34% |
| 23 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 34% |
| 22 Oct, 04:12 UTC | 33% |
| 22 Oct, 02:19 UTC | 32% |
| 22 Oct, 01:51 UTC | 32% |
| 21 Oct, 22:31 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Oct, 21:55 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 20:42 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Oct, 19:31 UTC | 33% |
| 21 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 34% |
| 21 Oct, 10:17 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Oct, 09:40 UTC | 37% |
| 21 Oct, 06:58 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Oct, 04:52 UTC | 37% |
| 21 Oct, 03:29 UTC | 36% |
| 21 Oct, 02:13 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Oct, 23:42 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Oct, 17:46 UTC | 36% |
| 20 Oct, 14:40 UTC | 37% |
| 20 Oct, 11:55 UTC | 38% |
| 18 Oct, 17:45 UTC | 39% |
| 17 Oct, 12:20 UTC | 38% |
| 16 Oct, 21:16 UTC | 39% |
| 14 Oct, 06:02 UTC | 38% |
| 13 Oct, 21:03 UTC | 37% |
| 13 Oct, 13:18 UTC | 36% |
| 13 Oct, 10:51 UTC | 37% |
| 12 Oct, 15:07 UTC | 36% |
| 11 Oct, 20:59 UTC | 38% |
| 11 Oct, 19:24 UTC | 37% |
| 11 Oct, 17:57 UTC | 37% |
| 11 Oct, 15:40 UTC | 36% |
| 11 Oct, 08:37 UTC | 37% |
| 10 Oct, 21:47 UTC | 36% |
| 10 Oct, 18:14 UTC | 37% |
| 9 Oct, 20:55 UTC | 38% |
| 9 Oct, 20:27 UTC | 38% |
| 9 Oct, 19:37 UTC | 38% |
| 9 Oct, 17:25 UTC | 40% |
| 9 Oct, 16:16 UTC | 39% |
| 9 Oct, 03:20 UTC | 38% |
| 8 Oct, 19:02 UTC | 37% |
| 8 Oct, 18:19 UTC | 35% |
| 8 Oct, 17:50 UTC | 34% |
| 8 Oct, 14:34 UTC | 35% |
| 8 Oct, 14:23 UTC | 34% |
| 8 Oct, 11:32 UTC | 35% |
| 8 Oct, 11:11 UTC | 34% |
| 8 Oct, 09:23 UTC | 34% |
| 8 Oct, 08:11 UTC | 34% |
| 8 Oct, 03:48 UTC | 35% |
| 7 Oct, 16:48 UTC | 34% |
| 7 Oct, 08:40 UTC | 35% |
| 5 Oct, 16:03 UTC | 36% |
| 5 Oct, 07:01 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Oct, 14:59 UTC | 36% |
| 4 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 37% |
| 4 Oct, 00:47 UTC | 36% |
| 3 Oct, 22:23 UTC | 37% |
| 3 Oct, 15:47 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 12:08 UTC | 34% |
| 3 Oct, 10:55 UTC | 35% |
| 3 Oct, 10:10 UTC | 36% |
| 2 Oct, 21:29 UTC | 39% |
| 2 Oct, 20:25 UTC | 39% |
| 2 Oct, 17:18 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 21:53 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 19:55 UTC | 40% |
| 1 Oct, 19:12 UTC | 39% |
| 1 Oct, 09:38 UTC | 38% |
| 1 Oct, 03:41 UTC | 37% |
| 1 Oct, 03:19 UTC | 36% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 36% |
| 30 Sept, 21:47 UTC | 37% |
| 30 Sept, 16:09 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 13:38 UTC | 39% |
| 24 Sept, 02:38 UTC | 40% |
| 23 Sept, 21:29 UTC | 38% |
| 23 Sept, 15:54 UTC | 39% |
| 23 Sept, 13:28 UTC | 40% |
| 22 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Sept, 16:02 UTC | 40% |
| 22 Sept, 15:31 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Sept, 15:23 UTC | 40% |
| 22 Sept, 13:57 UTC | 39% |
| 22 Sept, 13:06 UTC | 40% |
| 22 Sept, 04:32 UTC | 39% |
| 21 Sept, 23:28 UTC | 40% |
| 21 Sept, 22:48 UTC | 41% |
| 21 Sept, 22:29 UTC | 40% |
| 21 Sept, 21:54 UTC | 40% |
| 21 Sept, 11:23 UTC | 41% |
| 21 Sept, 10:31 UTC | 41% |
| 21 Sept, 10:17 UTC | 41% |
| 19 Sept, 08:09 UTC | 42% |
| 18 Sept, 02:54 UTC | 41% |
| 17 Sept, 21:25 UTC | 42% |
| 17 Sept, 19:37 UTC | 41% |
| 17 Sept, 13:21 UTC | 43% |
| 17 Sept, 11:01 UTC | 42% |
| 17 Sept, 10:55 UTC | 43% |
| 17 Sept, 03:17 UTC | 44% |
| 17 Sept, 02:52 UTC | 45% |
| 17 Sept, 02:08 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Sept, 20:16 UTC | 45% |
| 16 Sept, 16:53 UTC | 44% |
| 16 Sept, 06:24 UTC | 45% |
| 16 Sept, 05:49 UTC | 45% |
| 16 Sept, 05:25 UTC | 45% |
| 16 Sept, 03:58 UTC | 45% |
| 16 Sept, 02:59 UTC | 45% |
| 15 Sept, 23:40 UTC | 46% |
| 15 Sept, 14:44 UTC | 45% |
| 15 Sept, 03:50 UTC | 48% |
| 14 Sept, 20:22 UTC | 49% |
| 14 Sept, 19:22 UTC | 49% |
| 14 Sept, 18:21 UTC | 50% |
| 14 Sept, 14:06 UTC | 49% |
| 13 Sept, 23:12 UTC | 50% |
| 13 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 51% |
| 12 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 49% |
The story so far
1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 21 Sept 2026. The Hill published first, on 21 September at 15:52 UTC.
3 prediction markets price this story:
- Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Texas U.S. Senate election, including any run-offs. The No outcome applies if a Democrat or independent candidate wins. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Bo French for the resolution criteria, but the market resolves based on the official election winner as called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
- Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? — resolved “No” on 4 Nov 2026. The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Bo French for the resolution criteria, but the market depends solely on the official election result called by the Associated Press, Fox News, or NBC.
- Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? — the market puts it at 3%, with $174k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 8 Nov 2028. The market resolves to Yes if James Talarico wins and accepts the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination, as confirmed by official party sources. It resolves to No in all other cases, including if he loses the nomination or declines it after winning. Readers often mistake the linked Senate endorsement for a relevant event, but only the final presidential nomination matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Related prediction markets
Linked by software because they are about the same subject. Most ask a different question from the one this story reports, so read each market's own question. How often the link is right
- Resolved Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? No 3d ago
The market favoured No at 75% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Resolved Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026? No 3d ago
The market favoured Yes at 60% a day out, but No won. How often it's right
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? 3%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
Have your say
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
In this story
- James Talarico
- Ken Paxton
- Texas