Will the Republicans win the Texas governor race in 2026?
Implied probability 1%−59
24-hour volume$2.9M
Total volume$4.6M
Liquidity$296k
Resolves4 Nov 2026
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
The Yes outcome occurs if a Republican wins the 2026 Texas gubernatorial election. The No outcome applies if any other candidate wins. Readers often mistake the linked news story about Bo French for the resolution criteria, but the market depends solely on the official election result called by the Associated Press, Fox News, or NBC.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 1%
- No 99%