State Dept Denies Reports Rubio May Leave Trump Administration Hot: Odds moved 15 points in 24 hours

The story so far

3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 5 Nov 2026. The Hill published first, on 5 November at 21:28 UTC; France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines followed 2h 57m later. The most recent article, from Latest articles, appeared on 6 November at 00:45 UTC.

Outlets reporting it: The Hill (major outlet), France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines, Latest articles.

3 prediction markets price this story:

• Before Jan 1, 2027 — the market puts it at 21%, with $32k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio leaves his role as Secretary of State or announces he will leave before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he remains in office past that date without such an announcement. Readers often mistake the denial of reports for a definitive confirmation that he will stay.
• Marco Rubio out as Secretary of State by November 8, 2026? — the market puts it at 2%, with $8k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 9 Nov 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if Marco Rubio stops serving as Secretary of State at any point before November 8, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. An official announcement of his resignation or removal by that deadline also triggers a "Yes" resolution, even if the change takes effect later.
• Marco Rubio — the market puts it at 20%, with $33k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 20 Jan 2029. The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio becomes the first member of Donald Trump’s Cabinet to leave or announce his departure after May 22, 2026. It resolves to No if he remains in office past that date without being the first to exit.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.