Before Jan 1, 2027
Why it moved: −13 points at 22:54 UTC, after The Hill: State Department: Reports of Rubio mulling exit 'baseless hoax' — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 02:29 UTC | 20% |
| 6 Nov, 00:12 UTC | 20% |
| 5 Nov, 23:44 UTC | 23% |
| 5 Nov, 23:01 UTC | 25% |
| 5 Nov, 22:54 UTC | 28% |
| 5 Nov, 22:18 UTC | 41% |
| 5 Nov, 21:49 UTC | 43% |
| 5 Nov, 21:26 UTC | 42% |
| 5 Nov, 20:20 UTC | 43% |
| 4 Nov, 20:06 UTC | 36% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Marco Rubio leaves his role as Secretary of State or announces he will leave before January 1, 2027. It resolves to No if he remains in office past that date without such an announcement. Readers often mistake the denial of reports for a definitive confirmation that he will stay.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%