Starvation Crisis Deepens in Russian-Occupied Oleshky as Aid Blocked
Russian forces maintain a total blockade on the Ukrainian town, leaving thousands without food or medicine since May 2026.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 07:15 UTC | 2% |
| 2 Oct, 06:50 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 06:17 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 05:58 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 05:12 UTC | 3% |
| 2 Oct, 04:46 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 03:34 UTC | 2% |
| 28 Sept, 02:55 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 23:09 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 17:31 UTC | 2% |
| 27 Sept, 05:23 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 04:18 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 01:17 UTC | 3% |
| 27 Sept, 00:42 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 23:00 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 22:14 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 21:58 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 21:24 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 20:44 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 20:28 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 19:56 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 19:16 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 18:51 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 18:26 UTC | 3% |
| 26 Sept, 12:13 UTC | 3% |
The story so far
2 publishers have covered this in 2 articles since 1 Oct 2026. kyivindependent.com published first, on 1 October at 14:11 UTC; Latest articles followed 34h 25m later. The most recent article, from Latest articles, appeared on 3 October at 00:36 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: kyivindependent.com, Latest articles.
2 prediction markets price this story:
- Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 2%, with $2k traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Ukraine formally recognizes Russian sovereignty over any UN-recognized territory by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. This recognition must be a public announcement of an official agreement or unilateral pledge, regardless of whether it is part of a broader peace deal or when it takes effect.
- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? — the market puts it at 21%, with $975 traded in the last 24 hours, closing 1 Jan 2027. The market resolves to Yes if Russia controls every part of Kostyantynivka according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Control requires continuous shading under specific ISW layers during their daily updates, though minor border mismatches or negotiated settlements establishing actual control also count.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Polymarket Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? 2%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
- Polymarket Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? 21%
Does the market have this right?
Wrong market?
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