Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 21% |
| 3 Oct, 02:46 UTC | 21% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia controls every part of Kostyantynivka according to the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) map by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Control requires continuous shading under specific ISW layers during their daily updates, though minor border mismatches or negotiated settlements establishing actual control also count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 21%
- No 80%
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