Will Russia capture Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by March 31, 2027?
Implied probability 26%+3
24-hour volume$63k
Total volume$66k
Liquidity$11k
Resolves1 Apr 2027
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
Email me when the odds move
What counts
Russia must control the railroad station in Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka, as shown on the ISW map, by 11:59 PM ET on March 31, 2027. The station is considered captured if any part of its icon is shaded under 'Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain' or 'Assessed Russian Advances' layers on the ISW map, and this shading persists through the next full ISW daily update cycle.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 26%
- No 74%