Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by October 31?
Implied probability 34%−3
24-hour volume$351
Total volume$10k
Liquidity$4k
Resolves31 Oct 2026
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 34% |
| 7 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 34% |
| 6 Oct, 07:20 UTC | 38% |
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia controls any part of Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka according to the ISW map by October 31 at 11:59 PM ET. The control must be shown under specific qualifying layers and persist through the next full daily update cycle. Readers often mistake the deadline for midnight UTC or assume that claimed territory counts toward resolution.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 34%
- No 67%
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