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Scientists probe Earth's water origins and Mars' dusty north pole Hot: Odds moved 30 points in 24 hours

Research explores how shockwaves simulate planetary formation while meteorite analysis reveals sugar that may have aided life on early Earth.

2 publishers · 4 articles · first seen 30 Sept 2026 · updated 2h ago

Markets on this story

  • Kalshi Before 2050 29% −30 $679 24hends 1 Jan 2050

    Does the market have this right?

    Wrong market?

How the odds moved · Before 2050
0%50%100%29%29 Sept, 15:40 UTCnowNature: How did Earth get its water? Inside the extreme machine seeking answers · 30 Sept, 00:00 UTCPhys.org - latest science and technology news stories: Sugar found in meteorites may have helped secure its own survival on early Earth · 30 Sept, 16:20 UTCPhys.org - latest science and technology news stories: Earth and Mars: Built from different cosmic recipes · 30 Sept, 16:00 UTCPhys.org - latest science and technology news stories: The north pole of Mars is less dusty than scientists thought · 30 Sept, 13:00 UTC

Each tick is a source publishing on this story

Price data
TimeChance of yes
now29%
30 Sept, 16:36 UTC29%
29 Sept, 15:40 UTC59%

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How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before 2050 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

  1. NatureHow did Earth get its water? Inside the extreme machine seeking answers59%
  2. Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesThe north pole of Mars is less dusty than scientists thought59%
  3. Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesEarth and Mars: Built from different cosmic recipes59%
  4. Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesSugar found in meteorites may have helped secure its own survival on early Earth59%
  5. Current odds29%

Sources

Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.

  1. How did Earth get its water? Inside the extreme machine seeking answers Nature ·
  2. Sugar found in meteorites may have helped secure its own survival on early Earth Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories
  3. Earth and Mars: Built from different cosmic recipes Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories
  4. The north pole of Mars is less dusty than scientists thought Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories

In this story

  • Earth
  • Mars