Before 2050
Why it moved: −30 points at 16:36 UTC, after Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories: Sugar found in meteorites may have helped secure its own survival on early Earth — the latest article on its stories before the jump; what followed, not what caused it.
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 29% |
| 30 Sept, 16:36 UTC | 29% |
| 29 Sept, 15:40 UTC | 59% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if ten or more humans live self-sufficiently on Mars for a full Earth year before January 1, 2050. It resolves to No if this specific condition is not met by that deadline. Readers often mistake the requirement for temporary visits or assume partial infrastructure counts as self-sufficiency.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 29%
- No 71%