Before 2030
Implied probability 17%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$55k
Liquidity$55k
Resolves1 Jan 2030
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 01:37 UTC | 17% |
| 22 Oct, 01:29 UTC | 15% |
| 22 Oct, 00:10 UTC | 18% |
| 21 Oct, 08:24 UTC | 17% |
| 21 Oct, 05:27 UTC | 15% |
| 18 Oct, 06:30 UTC | 17% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if SpaceX launches a manned Starship mission to Mars before January 1, 2030. The outcome is No if this event does not occur within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked headline about an orbital test flight for the required Mars mission.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 17%
- No 83%