Japan readies Martian moon mission to uncover origins of life
The MMX probe launches on 20 October to retrieve samples from Phobos that may solve a century-old mystery about the moon's origins.
Headline and summary written by an AI model from the linked articles; not reviewed by a person. How this was made
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 16 Oct, 04:01 UTC | 31% |
| 15 Oct, 14:57 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Oct, 20:56 UTC | 31% |
| 13 Oct, 07:35 UTC | 30% |
| 13 Oct, 03:34 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 22:27 UTC | 31% |
| 12 Oct, 21:11 UTC | 31% |
Replay the odds, article by article
Step through each article in the order it published and watch China respond.
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 16 Oct 2026. New Scientist published first, on 16 October at 17:00 UTC; South China Morning Post followed 41h 35m later. The most recent article, from Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories, appeared on 18 October at 11:38 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: New Scientist, South China Morning Post, Phys.org - latest science and technology news stories.
One prediction market prices this story:
- China — the market puts it at 31%, closing 1 Jan 2031. China must be the first nation to send humans to the Moon before January 1, 2031 for the outcome to be Yes. The deadline is strictly based on the launch date of the mission, not the landing or return. Readers often mistake this market as resolving based on lunar exploration milestones rather than the specific condition of being the first country to achieve a manned moon landing.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on China at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
- New ScientistJapan is launching a mission to Mars’s largest moon Phobos31%
- South China Morning PostJapan readies Martian moon mission to uncover origins of life31%
- Phys.org - latest science and technology news storiesJapan to launch spacecraft on a mission to get samples from a Martian moon31%
- Current odds31%
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi China 31%
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In this story
- Japan
- Martian Moons eXploration
- Phobos