China
Implied probability 31%
24-hour volume$77
Total volume$49k
Liquidity$49k
Resolves1 Jan 2031
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 31% |
| 30 Sept, 16:44 UTC | 31% |
| 28 Sept, 00:14 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Sept, 23:51 UTC | 31% |
| 27 Sept, 06:03 UTC | 28% |
| 26 Sept, 14:01 UTC | 31% |
| 25 Sept, 19:10 UTC | 28% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
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What counts
China must be the first nation to send humans to the Moon before January 1, 2031 for the outcome to be Yes. The deadline is strictly based on the launch date of the mission, not the landing or return. Readers often mistake this market as resolving based on lunar exploration milestones rather than the specific condition of being the first country to achieve a manned moon landing.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 31%
- No 69%