Mars
Implied probability 11%
24-hour volume$14
Total volume$120k
Liquidity$120k
Resolves1 Aug 2099
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 19:36 UTC | 11% |
| 3 Oct, 13:03 UTC | 9% |
| 3 Oct, 11:21 UTC | 11% |
| 30 Sept, 21:16 UTC | 9% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Elon Musk travels to Mars before he dies or before August 1, 2099, whichever comes first. It resolves to No if that event does not happen within those limits. Readers often mistake the deadline for a fixed date rather than the earlier of his death or the specified year.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 11%
- No 89%