Russia Promises New Reusable Manned Transport Spacecraft

The story so far

1 publisher has covered this in 1 article since 30 Sept 2026. Ars Technica published first, on 30 September at 16:48 UTC.

2 prediction markets price this story:

• Russia — the market puts it at 0%, closing 1 Jan 2031. The outcome is Yes if Russia launches a crewed lunar mission before January 1, 2031, and no other country has done so first. The outcome is No if another nation achieves this milestone first or if Russia fails to launch a crewed mission by that date. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the year in which the launch occurs, but the rule specifies January 1, 2031, as the absolute cutoff.
• Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026? — resolved “Yes” on 1 Oct 2026. The market resolves to Yes if Russia controls any part of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, as shown on the ISW map by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Control requires persistent shading under specific layers like Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain during an ISW update cycle, or actual control established through a negotiated settlement.

Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.