Will Russia enter Mykolaivka by December 31, 2026?
The market favoured Yes at 99% a day out, and it won. How often it's right
Final probability 100%
24-hour volume$9k
Total volume$96k
Liquidity$0
Resolved1 Jan 2027
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 100% |
| 1 Oct, 21:59 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Oct, 20:02 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Oct, 13:55 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Oct, 13:06 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Oct, 10:35 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Oct, 06:36 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Oct, 04:59 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Oct, 02:21 UTC | 100% |
| 1 Oct, 01:41 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Oct, 00:44 UTC | 99% |
| 1 Oct, 00:23 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 23:39 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 22:51 UTC | 100% |
| 30 Sept, 22:03 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 20:46 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 20:24 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 19:17 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 18:07 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 17:43 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 17:28 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 16:59 UTC | 98% |
| 30 Sept, 15:00 UTC | 99% |
| 30 Sept, 02:44 UTC | 85% |
| 30 Sept, 02:28 UTC | 85% |
| 29 Sept, 02:28 UTC | 64% |
What counts
The market resolves to Yes if Russia controls any part of Mykolaivka, Donetsk Oblast, as shown on the ISW map by December 31, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. Control requires persistent shading under specific layers like Assessed Russian-Controlled Terrain during an ISW update cycle, or actual control established through a negotiated settlement.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 100%
- No 0%
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