Russia
Implied probability 0%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$8k
Liquidity$8k
Resolves1 Jan 2031
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 0% |
| 29 Sept, 17:00 UTC | 0% |
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The outcome is Yes if Russia launches a crewed lunar mission before January 1, 2031, and no other country has done so first. The outcome is No if another nation achieves this milestone first or if Russia fails to launch a crewed mission by that date. Readers often mistake the deadline for the end of the year in which the launch occurs, but the rule specifies January 1, 2031, as the absolute cutoff.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 0%
- No 100%