Retirees Worry Social Security Will Run Dry by 2032
Reports highlight growing anxiety among retirees about the program's solvency as funds are projected to deplete by 2032.
The odds
Each tick is a source publishing on this story · 1 more published before price tracking began
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 11 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 20% |
The story so far
3 publishers have covered this in 3 articles since 11 Oct 2026. Fortune published first, on 11 October at 09:00 UTC; The New York Times followed 29h 55m later. The most recent article, from MarketWatch, appeared on 12 October at 15:47 UTC.
Outlets reporting it: The New York Times (major outlet), Fortune, MarketWatch.
One prediction market prices this story:
- Before Jan 1, 2033 — the market puts it at 20%, closing 1 Jan 2033. The market resolves to Yes if the OASI Trust Fund runs out of money so that full scheduled Social Security benefits cannot be paid under current law before January 1, 2033. It resolves to No if this depletion does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the resolution criteria, but only the actual status of the OASI Trust Fund matters.
Odds are the market's probability that the outcome happens, updated every few minutes. They are information about what traders expect, not a forecast we make and not investment advice.
How it unfolded
Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Before Jan 1, 2033 at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.
Sources
Every article we clustered into this story. Headlines link to the publisher.
Markets on this story
- Kalshi Before Jan 1, 2033 20%
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In this story
- Social Security