Before Jan 1, 2033
Implied probability 20%
24-hour volume$0
Total volume$2k
Liquidity$2k
Resolves1 Jan 2033
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 20% |
| 11 Oct, 14:49 UTC | 20% |
Your call. How does this end?
Free, no money involved. Calls are scored against the market's price when you make them, so backing an underdog that wins scores most. Leaderboard · Your calls
Does the market have this right?
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What counts
The market resolves to Yes if the OASI Trust Fund runs out of money so that full scheduled Social Security benefits cannot be paid under current law before January 1, 2033. It resolves to No if this depletion does not happen within that timeframe. Readers often mistake the linked news headline for the resolution criteria, but only the actual status of the OASI Trust Fund matters.
Written from Kalshi's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Kalshi are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 20%
- No 80%