GOP Candidates Ignore Trump’s Midterm Advice as He Campaigns for House Control

How it unfolded

Every source in the order it published, with the odds on Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections? at that moment. A dash means the source published before we started tracking prices.

1. 6 Sept, 12:02NPR PoliticsPolitics chat: First-ever Republican midterm convention or Trump rally?—
2. 6 Sept, 15:36Mother JonesTrump Wants to Make Sure Every Voter Knows the Midterms Are a Referendum on Trump—
3. 7 Sept, 19:25The Hill NewsFake Republican midterm convention site still redirects to Epstein files—
4. 7 Sept, 21:00The Hill NewsThis week on the Hill: Political spotlight turns to GOP midterm convention in Dallas—
5. 8 Sept, 08:42NPR PoliticsPolitical commentator on what we might expect from Trump's midterm convention—
6. 8 Sept, 08:42NPR PoliticsRepublicans hope unconventional convention will rally voters ahead of midterms—
7. 8 Sept, 08:45PoliticoRepublicans are hoping ‘Trump-a-palooza’ isn’t only about Trump—
8. 8 Sept, 08:50rss.politico.comRepublicans hope Trump won't dominate Dallas—
9. 8 Sept, 10:00The Hill NewsVulnerable Republicans divided over wisdom of Trump’s midterm convention—
10. 8 Sept, 11:00The Guardian USDonald Trump’s midterm strategy? Make it all about him | Robert Reich—
11. Show 131 later sources

    1. 8 Sept, 12:00Politico CongressCapitol agenda: Republicans hope Trump won’t dominate Dallas—
    2. 8 Sept, 19:45Fox News PoliticsTrump's unusual role at midterm convention revealed as schedule goes public—
    3. 8 Sept, 22:09CBS News PoliticsWhy some key GOP candidates are skipping Trump-backed midterm convention—
    4. 8 Sept, 22:47AxiosTrump's summer of sabotage—
    5. 8 Sept, 23:28The HillCarville claims Trump 'wants to torture' GOP ahead of midterms—
    6. 9 Sept, 01:50Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al Jazeera‘Energiser’ or ‘circus’: US voters weigh in on Trump’s midterm convention—
    7. 9 Sept, 02:48Roll CallTrump heads to Dallas convention ahead of promised 30-day campaign blitz—
    8. 9 Sept, 05:00The DispatchDon’t Call It a Convention—
    9. 9 Sept, 05:55Deutsche WelleTrump takes center stage at Republican midterm convention—
    10. 9 Sept, 09:00NPR PoliticsRepublicans kick off a 'Trumpapalooza' of a midterm convention Wednesday in Texas—
    11. 9 Sept, 09:00Washington PostTrump makes GOP midterm convention about himself, much to Democrats’ delight—
    12. 9 Sept, 09:00Fox News PoliticsCan the 'best showman in politics' deliver again? GOP bets on Trump at historic midterm convention—
    13. 9 Sept, 13:22The Hill NewsRNC chair: ‘We’re going to defy history to win this November’—
    14. 9 Sept, 15:27The Hill NewsKudlow to Cruz: ‘You might want to think’ about announcing presidential bid in November—
    15. 9 Sept, 16:28Washington PostWhat Republicans are campaigning on for the midterms—
    16. 9 Sept, 16:42The Hill NewsHolder blasts Blanche over planned GOP convention speech: ‘Disgraceful’—
    17. 9 Sept, 17:23The Guardian USRepublicans kick off ‘midterm convention’ to overcome Trump unpopularity—
    18. 9 Sept, 17:45The Hill NewsWho won’t be at RNC’s midterm convention in Dallas—
    19. 9 Sept, 19:00The Hill NewsWatch live: Trump to headline first GOP midterm convention—
    20. 9 Sept, 19:04France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesRepublicans put Trump center stage in US midterms gamble—
    21. 9 Sept, 20:00The Hill NewsWatch: The Hill ‘Rising’ presents live special primetime RNC midterm convention coverage—
    22. 9 Sept, 20:36NPR PoliticsRepublicans kick off unconventional midterm convention in Dallas with Trump speech—
    23. 9 Sept, 20:49The Hill NewsTrump snaps at ABC reporter over question on Republicans avoiding GOP convention—
    24. 9 Sept, 20:51Bloomberg.comBalance of Power: GOP Convenes in Dallas (Podcast)—
    25. 9 Sept, 21:09France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlinesTrump 'believes in the power of his own charisma', analyst says—
    26. 9 Sept, 22:16Washington PostFor many attending the GOP’s midterm convention, the main draw is Trump—
    27. 9 Sept, 22:17AxiosExclusive: Fetterman to praise Trump in bombshell GOP convention video—
    28. 9 Sept, 22:48Fox News PoliticsPotential Dem presidential contender crashes GOP convention, tries to snatch spotlight from Trump—
    29. 9 Sept, 23:13The HillHouse GOP leaders use convention speeches to take aim at 'crazy communists'—
    30. 9 Sept, 23:15Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraIran war looms over Trump at Republican midterm convention in Dallas—
    31. 9 Sept, 23:35CBS News PoliticsTrump counts on midterm convention to boost Republican candidates for midterms—
    32. 9 Sept, 23:40The HillLive updates: Trump to address Republicans in Dallas after Fetterman appears in convention video—
    33. 9 Sept, 23:55Roll CallCapitol Lens | Mike check—
    34. 9 Sept, 23:55Roll Call5 things to know about the Republican midterm convention—
    35. 10 Sept, 01:08Latest articlesAs Trump takes center stage in Dallas, Republicans debate a future without him—
    36. 10 Sept, 03:01Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraTrump vows to be at centre of US midterms: Republican convention takeaways—
    37. 10 Sept, 03:10South China Morning PostTrump touts ‘most successful’ presidency, promises US$5,000 to citizens in speech—
    38. 10 Sept, 04:47The HillGOP midterm convention lives up to its 'Trump-a-Palooza' hype—
    39. 10 Sept, 05:20Bloomberg MarketsIran Ready to Escalate War, Trump at RNC Convention—
    40. 10 Sept, 05:36CBS News PoliticsTrump jokes about trying to "redo" huge Luka Dončić trade in Dallas speech—
    41. 10 Sept, 05:39France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines'Trump can see the writing on the wall here': Republicans hold midterm convention—
    42. 10 Sept, 05:59The Guardian USAs the midterms loom, Trump returns to his happy place: on stage in the theatre of the absurd—
    43. 10 Sept, 06:43Roll CallRoll Call on the Road: Day One of the Republican midterm convention—
    44. 10 Sept, 06:43Roll CallRepublicans make ‘crazed’ Democrats the focus of their first midterm convention—
    45. 10 Sept, 08:39France 24 - International breaking news, top stories and headlines'Egomaniac': Papers discuss 'Trumpapalooza' midterm convention—
    46. 10 Sept, 09:10AxiosGOP uses 9/11 anniversary to bash left-wing Dems—
    47. 10 Sept, 10:00Just In NewsDemocratic donors determined to oust Trump say they’re opening checkbooks—
    48. 10 Sept, 10:00Just In NewsThe elephant in the room at the RNC: Trump's money—
    49. 10 Sept, 10:00Just In NewsPublic anger over AI boom triggers GOP midterm worries—
    50. 10 Sept, 10:42The DispatchThe Battle Over the Ballroom—
    51. 10 Sept, 10:47NPR PoliticsVeteran pollster shares takeaways from Trump's convention speech—
    52. 10 Sept, 10:47NPR PoliticsTrump gives primetime speech at GOP convention, promising payout if Republicans win—
    53. 10 Sept, 11:16Just In NewsTrump, Fetterman deliver surprises at RNC night 1—
    54. 10 Sept, 12:00Bloomberg MarketsWall Street Is Betting On a Split Congress With Midterms on Tap—
    55. 10 Sept, 12:00Fox News PoliticsPresidential flip? GOP insider predicts Trump change of mind on key AI policy ahead of midterms—
    56. 10 Sept, 12:32Just In NewsTrump on convention crowd booing Thune: 'No, no. John is working hard'—
    57. 10 Sept, 12:43The HillLive updates: Trump, Vance to close out RNC midterm convention; Democrats counter with protests—
    58. 10 Sept, 13:00Washington PostDemocrats play up Trump investigations, Epstein files during GOP convention in Dallas—
    59. 10 Sept, 14:00QuartzRepublicans are touting a congressional stock-trading ban while Trump's accounts keep trading—
    60. 10 Sept, 15:37Roll CallRating changes: 10 races move toward Democrats, one toward Republicans—
    61. 10 Sept, 15:37Roll CallTrump puts himself on midterm ballot during Dallas spectacle—
    62. 10 Sept, 16:31Bloomberg.comDallas Becomes Center of the Political Universe Again After 42 Years—
    63. 10 Sept, 16:35Washington PostObama fundraising with Democrats as GOP holds night 2 of convention—
    64. 10 Sept, 17:00The HillWatch live: Trump gives remarks, tours National Medal of Honor Museum—
    65. 10 Sept, 19:00The HillWatch live: Vance, Trump to close out Day 2 of RNC midterm convention—
    66. 10 Sept, 20:25Roll CallAt the Races: Defiant in Dallas—
    67. 10 Sept, 20:37Washington PostSenior House leader to talk about Republicans targeting ‘communism’ in midterms—
    68. 10 Sept, 20:56Washington PostTrump said the top U.S. general was at the midterm convention. It’s not true.—
    69. 10 Sept, 21:31Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraRepublican midterm convention live: Trump, Vance headline day two in Dallas—
    70. 10 Sept, 22:17Bloomberg.comRepublican Midterm Convention Day 2, Oil Climbs, More—
    71. 10 Sept, 22:50Washington PostSee photos from the Republican midterm convention—
    72. 10 Sept, 23:08Bloomberg.comGOP Midterm Convention Day 2, Oracle Tops Estimates, More—
    73. 10 Sept, 23:28Washington PostVance appears more like Trump’s heir-apparent at GOP convention—
    74. 10 Sept, 23:31AxiosTrump's plan if Democrats win Congress: "I'll be a blocker"—
    75. 11 Sept, 00:48Bloomberg.comOracle Revenue Beats, Day 2 of GOP Midterm Convention, More—
    76. 11 Sept, 02:42DeadlineDonald Trump’s GOP Midterm Convention Fails To Get A Bounce In Cable News Viewership—
    77. 11 Sept, 02:45Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraYoung republicans break with Trump over Iran war—
    78. 11 Sept, 03:12Bloomberg.comTrump/Vance Speak at GOP Convention, Oracle Beats, More—
    79. 11 Sept, 03:17The HillTrump leads convention in pledge: 'You go to h---' if you don’t vote—
    80. 11 Sept, 03:19Roll CallRoll Call on the Road: Day Two in Dallas—
    81. 11 Sept, 03:33Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraRepublican midterm convention wraps up in Dallas, Texas: Key takeaways—
    82. 11 Sept, 03:49The Hill NewsRNC finale ‘all about Vance’ as GOP base looks to 2028—
    83. 11 Sept, 03:52The Guardian USJD Vance pitches himself as Trump’s political heir on day two of Republican midterm convention—
    84. 11 Sept, 04:07Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraTrump jokes Republicans can ‘cheat like hell’ in the midterms—
    85. 11 Sept, 04:24The Guardian US‘I’m on the ticket’: Trump implores Republicans to vote in November at unusual midterm convention—
    86. 11 Sept, 04:27News FeedTrump-Vance’s midterm pitch: Vote Republican or live with the ‘lunatics’—
    87. 11 Sept, 04:42Latest articlesJD Vance seizes MAGA spotlight as Republicans begin looking beyond Trump—
    88. 11 Sept, 05:00South China Morning PostVance takes centre stage as Trump wraps up GOP midterm convention with voter warnings—
    89. 11 Sept, 05:27Roll Call‘He’s not going away’: GOP loyalists not ready for Trump to leave political stage—
    90. 11 Sept, 08:45NPR PoliticsRepublican strategist shares takeaways from Vance's speech at the GOP convention—
    91. 11 Sept, 08:46NPR PoliticsVance, Trump urge Americans to support Republicans on last night of convention—
    92. 11 Sept, 09:00Washington Post4 takeaways from the GOP midterm convention—
    93. 11 Sept, 09:00Washington PostRepublicans try at midterm convention to aid Paxton in his tight Senate race—
    94. 11 Sept, 09:00NPR PoliticsEmpty seats, socialism and Trump dominate the Republican midterm convention—
    95. 11 Sept, 09:00AxiosVance: MAGA's millennial messenger for the midterms—
    96. 11 Sept, 09:00Fox News PoliticsTrump issues blunt midterm warning, Vance greeted with ‘48’ chants: Top takeaways from GOP convention—
    97. 11 Sept, 10:00The Hill NewsTrump officials blur Hatch Act lines with GOP convention speeches—
    98. 11 Sept, 10:50Al Jazeera – Breaking News, World News and Video from Al JazeeraRepublican midterm message: Democrats are the threat—
    99. 11 Sept, 11:55NPR PoliticsRemembering 9/11. And, Vance, Trump urge voters to back Republicans in the midterms—
    100. 11 Sept, 13:00Rolling StoneGOP Embraces Cult Status With Pledge to Trump, Bonkers Video—
    101. 11 Sept, 14:56Bloomberg.comTwo Days in Dallas: How the Republican Convention Played on TV—
    102. 11 Sept, 16:25Washington PostTrump asks convention crowd to pledge to him they will vote, ‘cheat like hell’—
    103. 11 Sept, 18:29Roll Call‘Tired of politics’: By GOP convention’s end, even Trump had tapped out—
    104. 11 Sept, 20:53MedPageToday.com - medical news for physiciansFalse and Misleading Claims on Healthcare During the Republican Midterm Convention—
    105. 12 Sept, 06:17Latest articlesAt Dallas convention, some loyalists question Trump-centric midterms strategy—
    106. 12 Sept, 10:00The Hill NewsThe Memo: Trump’s convention may struggle to turn tide for GOP—
    107. 12 Sept, 10:00The Guardian USTrump personality cult alive and well in Dallas – will it power Republican midterm success?—
    108. 12 Sept, 12:04NPR PoliticsWeek in politics: Trump attends Republican midterm convention and Pentagon's 9/11 memorial service—
    109. 12 Sept, 13:30Rolling StoneFear and Delusion in Dallas: Inside Trump’s Midterm Convention Flop—
    110. 12 Sept, 15:25Fox News PoliticsThe one line from JD Vance’s GOP keynote that reveals his vision for America—
    111. 12 Sept, 16:00Just In NewsTrump plots a campaign blitz; GOP candidates face a decision—
    112. 12 Sept, 18:15The HillTrump political adviser is 'cautiously optimistic' about GOP in upcoming midterms—
    113. 12 Sept, 20:35The HillSunday shows preview: Republicans talk strategy as midterms approach; Iran conflict, Canada trade war leave economy in flux30%
    114. 13 Sept, 10:00The Hill NewsRepublicans cast Muslim Democrats as chief enemies in ‘dangerous’ midterm pitch30%
    115. 13 Sept, 10:00Fox News PoliticsVulnerable House Republicans embrace Trump as GOP bets on defying midterm history30%
    116. 13 Sept, 11:03The Hill NewsState of Texas: Paxton and Talarico in their own words30%
    117. 13 Sept, 12:00News FeedThe calculated desperation of Trump-a-palooza30%
    118. 13 Sept, 13:02The Hill NewsLive updates: Lawmakers set to return from recess; Trump attends golf tournament in Ireland30%
    119. 14 Sept, 08:43NPR PoliticsRepublican pollster discusses GOP voters' outlook as midterms approach31%▲1 points since the previous source
    120. 14 Sept, 08:43NPR PoliticsTrump returns home to drum up voter support for GOP candidates ahead of midterms31%
    121. 14 Sept, 09:00Washington PostTrump, Vance open midterm campaign tour as GOP troubles deepen31%
    122. 14 Sept, 09:20AxiosHow Republicans secretly got Fetterman for their convention31%
    123. 14 Sept, 10:00Just In NewsRepublicans bet the House on Trump31%
    124. 14 Sept, 11:00The Guardian USDisaster insurance, datacenters, right to repair: meet the midterm candidates running on green policies31%
    125. 15 Sept, 13:30The HillA Republican convention about fear collides with a midterm about prices31%
    126. 15 Sept, 14:30The HillTrump wants a referendum on Trump ahead of the midterms — let’s give him one.31%
    127. 15 Sept, 15:17Roll CallWill there be more midterm conventions?31%
    128. 15 Sept, 17:46kyivindependent.comUkraine largely absent from Republican midterm convention stage, but party members weigh in offstage31%
    129. 15 Sept, 20:33The HillFetterman again says he's 'not going to be a Republican' following RNC convention video appearance32%▲2 points since the previous source
    130. 16 Sept, 10:00Washington PostTrump told Republicans to talk about him. Data shows they aren’t listening.33%▲1 points since the previous source
    131. 16 Sept, 23:21Roll CallBehind the Byline — Trump and the Republican midterm convention33%
12. NowCurrent odds37%