Will the Republican Party hold 47 or fewer Senate seats after the 2026 midterm elections?
Price data
| Time | Chance of yes |
|---|---|
| now | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 13:00 UTC | 39% |
| 30 Sept, 03:13 UTC | 38% |
| 30 Sept, 01:30 UTC | 38% |
| 27 Sept, 23:37 UTC | 37% |
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What counts
The Yes outcome counts if Republicans hold 47 or fewer seats in the Senate after the November 3, 2026 election and any subsequent runoffs. The No outcome applies if they hold 48 or more seats at that time. Readers often mistake the date of the general election for the final deadline, but runoffs occurring after November can still change the seat count.
Written from Polymarket's resolution rules by the same model that writes our headlines. The rules on Polymarket are what decides it.
Outcomes
- Yes 39%
- No 62%
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